Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
